More energy issues

OK, since I am back on the theme of electric power reliability, here is an interesting tidbit showing why production diversity is good:

ERCOT [Electric Reliability Council of Texas] said the grid's frequency dropped suddenly when wind production fell from more than 1,700 megawatts, before the event, to 300 MW when the emergency was declared.

But they had a plan, and immediately cut 1100MW to interruptible customers, thus saving the grid from going down. Soon they were able to fire up other production facilities and have everyone back on line.

The biggest drawback to wind power (there are a few) is that the wind is notoriously unpredictable. However, as long as there is a backup plan, wind power can be a good additional source.

Cascading power

When DX, Troy and I wrote our PAE almost a decade ago we wondered how long it would take for people to understand the concept of a cascading failure. Listening to Fox News today, it sounds like the talking heads have no idea. A small generation or transmission failure in a system running at 90% capacity can quickly cause major failures. July 1996. Aug 1996. Aug 2003. Feb 2008. A few major failures, there have been many smaller ones. It will continue to happen, and we will continue to handle them. So, how does this happen?

A power grid is made up of three parts (yes, it is that simple): generation, transmission and distribution. If any one part fails, power does not move.

The grid always has to be in perfect sync. The amount of power going onto the grid (generation) always has to be exactly the same as the amount coming off (distribution). Transmission is what gets the 'trons from one place to another. Oh, and the frequency and phase of the power entering the grid has to match the grid.

If there is an imbalance, something has to give. Imagine that a section of the city consuming power is suddenly isolated from the rest of the grid (transmission failure or distribution failure). The amount it was consuming suddenly needs to not be put on the grid. The generator (in this case a nuke plant) can't just dump the power into the nearest river. There is no good way of making 'shock absorbers' on a massive scale. In order to protect the generation capability, generators are programed to automatically 'trip' off-line, essentially deactivating the electromagnets producing the power.

When the generator trips off, if the amount it was producing was greater than the amount already shed from the grid, other generators have to spin up and put out more power to make up for the loss. If this surge in demand is too great, generators are put at risk and there is an increased chance of other generation or transmission malfunction. The operating generators are then isolated from the grid, causing another deficit. This deficit causes more distribution problems further away, and the failure propagates rapidly.

In this case, it appears that the system worked as designed. Probably a subsystem transformer (distribution system) or minor transmission line went down, causing a power flux to the power plant. The plant shut down for safety, as it should have. Generators are designed to trip off-line so that they can be rapidly restarted with minimal damage. Yes, people are inconvenienced, but not nearly as much as if the generators were damaged or destroyed.

It is actually pretty hard to get the grid back up and running, which is why they do it one area at a time. Load (toasters, TVs and other powersuckers) must match the available generation. It is more complicated than flipping a switch, and amazing that this fragile system goes down so rarely and comes back so swiftly.

People have been critical of the administration's efforts to get power back up and running in Iraq, but the situation there was terrible. Transmission lines were in poor shape and darn near impossible to defend. Generation was is terrible shape due to 20 years of neglect, and there distribution system was centered around Baghdad and designed not for redundancy or fairness, but rather to let Saddam control the people by giving power to those who were docile and taking it from his enemies. The fact that we have been able to get things running as well as we have is a great tribute to those brave troops (American and Iraqi, as well as some from some other allies) who have toiled long and whose deeds have as long been unheeded in the press reports of the war.

Keeping up

An Army Major who was killed in Iraq has an interesting final blog post. As they say, death tends to concentrate the mind. I've had to write a few of these letters and leave them with others on some of my more challenging missions, but thankfully I have always been able to retrieve the letter afterward. Andrew was not as fortunate. What I find most interesting is that he persevered in telling the story of Iraq despite the Army's attempts at limiting information flow out (for understandable OPSEC reasons). He was a vital part of winning the war. Al Qaida understands that the war will be won or lost here. And Maj. Olmstead seems to have understood that as well. RIP

Crazy

Ok, so I haven't posted in a while, but this one just makes me shake my head...

Three lead suspects — Jamal Zougam, Othman Gnaoui and Spaniard Emilio Suarez Trashorras — were convicted of murder and attempted murder and received sentences ranging from 34,000 to 43,000 years in prison, although under Spanish law the most time they can spend in jail is 40 years. Spain has no death penalty or life imprisonment.

Um, how effective is that really? Is the stigma of a 43,000 year sentence supposed to deter this sort of behavior? Amazing...

Then, of course, there is the insanity going on in Delaware, which has been quite well documented by FIRE. I won't go into the main points, as they are articulated elsewhere, but this selection from the "Strategic Change Assessment" (P12) should give any parents of potential students pause:

Rules regarding human subjects Our assessment efforts must fall within the boundaries of University of Delaware human subjects’ policies maintained by the Office of the Vice Provost for Research. Normally, the types of assessment processes used by Residence Life would qualify for an exception to the full board review. ... When recording verbal responses, it is required the students sign an informed consent form. A framework for the form can be obtained from Jim Tweedy. Any of our tools that are designed to be primarily educational in nature are fully exempt and do not need approval. Our tools designed to examine educational techniques will require advance approval. ... As we become more effective in our pre-planning of assessment, we will be able to establish “series approval” allowing us a more efficient means of navigating the process. We will be engaging in further training on human subject regulations.

Congrats! You are unwitting guinea pigs in this massive social experiment.

Eli has done it!

Not only has he qualified for the Olympics, he has his own personal web page: elibremer.com. I guess that is how you know you have really made it. Naturally, there is some misinformation on there, like that he was born in Massachusetts. Nice try, bud, but if you really want to claim the birthplace of the Revolution, I'll gladly see your 'live free or die' and raise you a John Kerry. Heck, I'll even throw in a few Kennedys. Anyway, I am quite proud. Now he just has to figure out what he is going to do with his life if he ever decides to grow up. Not that that is the recommended course of action... Tamsey suggests politics. I can't say that I disagree. On to Peking!

AP caption odd of the day

Who these things writes?

Protection

According to Foxnews, Congress is considering the wisdom of depriving people of a constitutional right on the basis of the terrorist watch list. Aside from the whole 5th Amendment issue, I think it is amusing that Ted Kennedy might find it harder to get a gun...

Unexpected Visitor

Turkey hunting the other day, I heard a slight rustle in my blind, and as I turned around, this fellow raised his head. With nowhere to run (he was between me and door) I just watched as he decided that it was time to move on.

Doing great

Tamsey is a real trooper. We got to the hospital at about 7:30 PM, after stopping for some marble slab creamery. After an hour of inprocessing and paperwork, Tamsey decided it was time for a baby, and shortly thereafter Benaiah Paul entered the world head-first and making plenty of noise. Mom and baby are doing great. More pictures as bandwidth allows.

Questions I never thought I'd have to answer

This evening my philosopher-son, after listening to my diva-daughter sing an old childrens' rhyme involving methods of detaining Panthera tigris said, "Dad, why do you catch a tiger by his toe?"

Needless to say, I was not stumped for long. "Well, JB, because that is where his claws are, and once you have him by his toe, his claw can't scratch you."

I thought I had him but again: "What is a holler?" For a moment I considered something about a small valley in the mountains, but resisted and told him it was a long, deep yell.

While he pondered, I posited this question: "What if he doesn't holler?" and his immediate reply was entirely logical: "Don't let him go!" But he was not done. "Well...why don't you catch him by the neck and cut off his head? Then he can't scratch you."

Alas, I had no answer.